How many newborns will there be this year?Obstetrics: Seven or eight or eight in the past day, now one in a few days; 50 % discounts in hospitals, and some suspension of delivery services

Based on the data built by the existing pregnant women this year, the new birth population is less than 8 million?

According to "Chinese Charity House", it is learned from multiple grass -roots hospitals that the number of pregnant women in the establishment of files this year is indeed decreased, and some doctors have said that the number of archives has been reduced by one -third.In order to compete for maternal resources, many hospitals have begun to provide maternal preferential services.For example, a 50 % discount on beds in a well -known maternal and child hospital in Jiangxi Province.

An obstetrician and gynecologist in a hospital in Henan said that the number of pregnant women has declined significantly compared with the past few years. "There is almost no need to queue in the production examination, and the obstetrics have been quiet. In order to attract more pregnant women, some hospitals also provide free shuttle delivery."

Regarding the low fertility rate, Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip and the population economist, suggested that the government pays money to families with children, especially children, to reduce the family’s fertility costs and help more young people to complete their children’s wishes.He suggested that the financial expenditure of subsidized fertility should account for at least 2%-5%of GDP, and the specific expenditure may be trillive to subsidize fertility.

There is a hospital suspension of labor and delivery services

"Seven or eight in the past day, one now a few days"

According to Red Star News, recently, the Red Star Capital Bureau learned from the obstetrics department of many maternal and child health hospitals in many places across the country that more intuitive feelings have been more intuitive than the specific maternal archives data building data.For many doctors in the delivery room, the crying of newborn has become less, the bed is no longer nervous, and everyone’s work is not as busy as before.

Picture source: Visual China

A obstetrics and gynecologist at a maternal and child health hospital in Guizhou Province introduced that the number of childbirth in the hospital this year has decreased by nearly 30%compared with the same period. The birth rate of newborn births in three public hospitals in the county is decreased, and the salary of medical care is also affected.A medical staff at a three -seater and child health hospital in Hunan Province introduced that the obstetrics are the brand of the hospital. The number of childbirth has been ranked among the top in the province.

"In the past (childbirth volume), there may be seven or eight or ten or ten a day. Now one day, it is good to be one day." A obstetrician at Harbin Maternal and Child Health Hospital in Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province said that the hospital’s childbirth has decreased this yearFor more than half, in addition to the concept of fertility and economic level, the diversion of local private hospitals also has an impact.

In addition, on May 7, 2023, a announcement from Cangnan County Hospital of Cangnan County, Zhejiang Province attracted attention.According to the announcement, according to the development plan of the hospital’s discipline, after research and decision, the maternity and delivery services were suspended from now on.

"The number of childbirth is small, and (continuing) does not make sense. We stopped completely last October." A medical staff at the obstetrics and gynecology department of Cangnan County Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital introduced that in recent yearsIn the case of external adjustment and retirement, the structure composition of the obstetrics and gynecology employees has changed a lot, and the business has also shifted from obstetrics to the combination of Chinese and Western medicine.

Maternal age is constantly rising

"Only 3 of 15 are under 30 years old"

According to "Chinese Charity House", recently, it is reported that the maternal archives have basically been completed this year, and the number of people born throughout the year can be estimated according to the situation of the file. The conclusion is that the new birth population is less than 8 million this year.

The reporter learned from multiple grass -roots hospitals that the number of pregnant women in the establishment of files this year is indeed decreased. A director of the obstetrics and gynecology department in a comprehensive hospital in Guangdong introduced in an interview that the number of pregnant women in recent years has decreased significantly. This yearEven more obvious, "my hospital is at least one -third."

"Before the epidemic, you can often see a family of three babies and four -child family. Now few two babies and three babies are raised.One child is still a child pregnant woman, and they are all reduced. "

In addition to the decrease in the number of pregnant women, the age of pregnant women is constantly rising.According to surging news, for nearly 30 years of employment, the obstetrician Gu Weirong noticed a phenomenon in clinical practice in recent years: accompanied by the emergence of low fertility, the proportion of elderly women (remarks: age over 35 years old) clinically increased significantly, and the risk of complications was also the risk of complications.In continuous increase, "This is also the main problem facing many large -scale obstetrics hospitals in China, and puts forward higher requirements for our diagnosis ability."

Gu Weirong is the director of the Ministry of Industry and Children’s Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital affiliated to Fudan University. This hospital is also one of the three three -sectarian college hospitals in Shanghai.One morning in mid -May, in the clinic of obstetrics, Gu Weirong served a total of 15 maternal mothers, of which only 3 were under 30 years old, there were 8 elderly women, and the highest age reached 40 years old.

Picture source: Visual China

"In order to cope with the peak of fertility in 2016, our hospital temporarily added 100 beds of beds, but now with the decline in the number of childbirth, many beds have come out. Now we need to make a reasonable arrangement. In this caseTo improve medical services, meet the current needs of maternal mothers as much as possible, and create a safe and reliable medical environment for them. "Gu Weirong said that in addition to the preliminary women, about 40%of the current birth mothers are maternals.This part of the crowd is mainly based on two children, and the proportion of really three children is still very low.

Gu Weirong further stated that the elderly mother in the hospital accounted for 20-25%.In 2011, this ratio was about 11%, which means that this proportion has almost doubled in 10 years.

The first city to send money is still "motionless"

Liang Jianzhang: The subsidy is at least trillions

In order to encourage fertility, local governments have released "big moves".In July 2021, Panzhihua City, Sichuan Province, became the first city to give birth to the second and third children.By the end of March 2022, Panzhihua had fulfilled the first parenting subsidy to the city, totaling 950,000 yuan, involving 650 families.

Nowadays, Panzhihua’s parenting subsidy policy has been implemented for nearly two years, and it has attracted much attention."Each month (childbirth) is 180 or eighty." On May 22, a obstetrics staff from a three -level specialist hospital in Panzhihua City introduced to the Red Star Capital Bureau that the number of production inspections and childbirth in the hospital this year is close to previous years.EssenceHowever, the Red Star reporter learned from a number of hospitals in various districts (counties) in the city that there was a decline in childbirth.

Picture source: Visual China

Yang Chenggang, a professor at the University of Southwest University of Finance and Economics and vice president of the Chinese Population Society, said that the government took out subsidies for "real gold and silver" to reduce the childcare cost of childbearing couples as much as possible, reflecting the positive attitude of encouraging fertility.However, it must be acknowledged that these subsidies compared to the parenting cost of the family, although it cannot be said to be "a good salary", I am afraid it is difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of fertility.

Recently, Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip and Population Economist, suggested that the financial expenditure of subsidized fertility in the new book should account for at least 2%-5%of GDP. Specific expenses may require trillions of subsidies to subsidize fertility.

He said that specific subsidy fertility measures should be included: 1. Cash subsidy: For each child of the two -child family, give a cash subsidy of 1,000 yuan per month; each child of more than three children (including three children) families, gives each month a month, gives monthThe cash subsidy of 2000 yuan is until the child is 18 or 20.Second, individual tax and social security reduction: For two -child families, the implementation of personal income tax and social security is reduced, and personal income tax and social security exemption of personal personal income tax and social security for more than three children.3. Subsidy purchase subsidies, specific methods can be subsidized through mortgage interest returns or house prices discount.For example, 50%of the mortgage interest of the two -child family, and the mortgage interest of families with more than three children can be subsidized.

He said that sending money to the family of children is not only conducive to reducing the unemployment rate of young people, but also conducive to improving the fertility rate.If the population will decrease significantly, the number of competitive work opportunities will certainly become less, but employment opportunities in the market will be reduced accordingly, and it will increase employment difficulties because it is more difficult to achieve matching. Northeast China is an example.

Edit | Wang Yuelong Du Hengfeng

School pair | Liu Xiaoying

Daily Economic News integrated from Red Star News, Chinese Charity, Surging News, Dahecai Cube

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